So I didn't win the $260 mega million this time, someone in the heartland of Ohio did. At least this means an end to all the hoopla and a return to your normal $10-15 million jackpots. Whew, that was crazy there. I actually had to figure out how to use those little scan sheets and interact with the clerk from 7-11. That might be the biggest lesson out of it all, don't ask them anything. They can make you feel idiotic and superior at the same time.
I was also struck by something completely unexpected, as I was pouring over an email real estate listing for condo units nearby. There are advertisements in my email, which is no different than anyone else. I, however, actually used one, and found that something that some agency has placed through Google adwords will help me. Now that is truly groundbreaking. It's certainly better than the first banner ad.
Of course, our lives will be full of ads soon, and our senses are able to filter most out, but when they are text-based, nearby similar content, and most importantly relevant, then they have a chance. Like basketball fans who wave their Thunderstix in a random, unsynchronized pattern at a free throw shooter, it is all visual white noise. It easily goes away, like magazine ads, billboards, and especially big flashing Flash movies all over. The lesson is that being different is key. Recently, IKEA has hired a more liberal ad agency over other Danish firms, Welcome to Orange County is relatively unknown, but seems to have a grasp on a younger, more modern/aware demographic. Also, a good idea in advertising is KFC (the chicken place) giving free food to anyone who cares enough to tape their commercial and play it backwards. How much is your time worth?
Anyway, the ad that inspired me was pointing to the Boston Redevelopment Authority (they call it the BRA) and their below-market housing system right alongside my email listings for overpriced Boston housing. It is a city program that helps people like myself get into housing and build equity, but we are prohibited from selling at a significant gain. I think the tradeoff is acceptable, as I may be able to afford something that I couldn't otherwise, and may be somewhat insulated from bad market fluctuations. Thanks Google ads! You just saved me $90k!
Wednesday, March 01, 2006
Friday, February 24, 2006
Lottery speaks to our inner random
The site blingo.com has a pre-, or post-determined set of time codes. If you run a search and are the closest to the magic time, you win a prize. Randomness is always a logical vacation, as you can analyze outcomes in statistical fashion, at the conclusion of a trial, or you can run a simulation of a number of events and see which is the most likely to happen. This will show you tendencies, but never the specifics of any one run over another. This is why random numbers are so important.
There is a series of 5 traffic lights that I drive through daily. They are spaced so that it is impossible to hit every one green, and most times you will be stopped several times. Occasionally, there is a backup, as the cyclical rotation of each has come into alignment to stop more cars earlier in the sequence. For each one of these days, though, there are 3-4 easy days. Does it depend on the time I am traveling through? Probably not much, as traffic between 5:30 and 7 is pretty constant on those roads. The key variable, I have noticed, is the second light, which is timed to operate with sufficient traffic backed up on the side street. Out of all these pseudo-random outcomes, there is a seed - how many cars are traveling on side street x. It must drive the planners crazy.
I will be buying a lottery ticket tonight. The Mega Millions jackpot is up to $205 million, a reward that starts to justify the one dollar risk. What is my chance of winning? 1 in 175,711,536
So what's the big deal? It's just like blingo, the closest time to that random time where the correct seed in the terminal at Quality Kwik Gas will produce the correct numbers is doubtlessly going to happen once or twice before the drawing. To me, it beats putting the chore in my own hands and accepting the blame of defeat.
As someone on Fark put it:
There is a series of 5 traffic lights that I drive through daily. They are spaced so that it is impossible to hit every one green, and most times you will be stopped several times. Occasionally, there is a backup, as the cyclical rotation of each has come into alignment to stop more cars earlier in the sequence. For each one of these days, though, there are 3-4 easy days. Does it depend on the time I am traveling through? Probably not much, as traffic between 5:30 and 7 is pretty constant on those roads. The key variable, I have noticed, is the second light, which is timed to operate with sufficient traffic backed up on the side street. Out of all these pseudo-random outcomes, there is a seed - how many cars are traveling on side street x. It must drive the planners crazy.
I will be buying a lottery ticket tonight. The Mega Millions jackpot is up to $205 million, a reward that starts to justify the one dollar risk. What is my chance of winning? 1 in 175,711,536
So what's the big deal? It's just like blingo, the closest time to that random time where the correct seed in the terminal at Quality Kwik Gas will produce the correct numbers is doubtlessly going to happen once or twice before the drawing. To me, it beats putting the chore in my own hands and accepting the blame of defeat.
As someone on Fark put it:
I agree. My mental health has to be taken care of too.
2006-02-20 11:32:47 PM Incontinent_dog_and_monkey_rodeo
Only ever buy ONE ticket for any given lottery. You increase your chances from zero to some insignificant chance. That is effectively an infinite increase in your odds of winning. Combine that with the pleasure of imagining what you'd do if you won and it's worth the dollar.
Only ever play lotteries where the payout is truly life altering. $5000 max scratch tickets are a tax on people who can't do math. $50,000,000+ lottery payouts for a $1 entry fee are worth taking a risk on. Given that no one can feasibly play more than 5-6 $50 million+ lotteries a week, the $5-6 expenditure (tops) doesn't seem unreasonable.
If you play more than one ticket or play small time payouts, you probably don't understand statistics very well.
Thursday, February 16, 2006
All of our problems are solved!
I sometimes read the column "overlawyered" when I am in a conservative mood. Torts are going to kill us all, so let's at least have some humor about them in the meantime. Since I didn't become a lawyer, opting for the lowly architect role, I stand to lose a deal, a company, or a project because of some overzealous lawsuit in the future, especially that I now have an identity in the world through the application for a licence. I fear an environment that prevents advancement. Whether it be patent trolls, historical commissions, or personal injury scouts. The profession shudders, and every line I write now goes through my own personal libel filter. It's outrageous and preposterous.
In fact, a lawyer who is a client right now has threatened legal action against my firm for failing to keep billings in line. We are out there putting out asses on the line preventing his historical renovation project from collapsing onto the town administrative offices (oh the irony) and he thinks his bill wasn't negotiated correctly. Well, I can only imagine that what he charges for one hour of his time is what I am billed out for an entire day. Not to knock the legal trade, but what do people think we do? Architects are the decendants of the master builder, balancing gravity, proportion, the regulations, and cost. There are situations where we aren't needed, but many where it is vital and a public hazard to not use one.
Anyway, so we are underpaid, overworked, and scoffed at by builders, clients, and officials. Oh well, I'll just file a trivial suit against my alma mater for failing to inform me of these pitfalls. I can only hope for a settlement. $2 million should be good.
In fact, a lawyer who is a client right now has threatened legal action against my firm for failing to keep billings in line. We are out there putting out asses on the line preventing his historical renovation project from collapsing onto the town administrative offices (oh the irony) and he thinks his bill wasn't negotiated correctly. Well, I can only imagine that what he charges for one hour of his time is what I am billed out for an entire day. Not to knock the legal trade, but what do people think we do? Architects are the decendants of the master builder, balancing gravity, proportion, the regulations, and cost. There are situations where we aren't needed, but many where it is vital and a public hazard to not use one.
Anyway, so we are underpaid, overworked, and scoffed at by builders, clients, and officials. Oh well, I'll just file a trivial suit against my alma mater for failing to inform me of these pitfalls. I can only hope for a settlement. $2 million should be good.
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